It Is really, for now, a catch-22 situation. As of today, BMR is 750/USD even when the official rate remains within the range of 445/USD. That leaves almost N300/ USD arbitrage and is the primary reason behind the current aggressive round-tripping. And with shrinking revenue lines occasioned by the brazen stealing of our golden egg and massive capital drain into the subsidy payment funnel, it is still a long way home. Having said that, Of course, it means our currency officially will be exchanged for about 540k/ USD which considering 5he pressure on it remains an unrealistic price if devalued by 20%.
While it will reduce black market round-tripping of dollars and rent-seeking in the short term, med and loan term, the slide will still kick in again except something fundamentally change in our revenue dynamics or maybe a perception that any new government will inject the right policy, fiscal and economic framework to begin( note begin) to correct the malaise. While we pray ahead of the next election which has actually assumed an existential mold for the country, such devaluation will expose the economy to the following
1) Supply induced hyper inflations based on transfer pricing
2) Reduced purchasing power of the citizens.
3) Wipping out of the salary of income earners and their take home will not be able to take home anything again or will take home only 75% of its existing value.
4) Downsizing from companies to reduce the cost of production and overhead
5) Increases dependency factor of citizens
6) Social strife given crime and criminality will increase
7) Social Unrest.
8) Increased cost of living driven by headline inflationary trends.
8) Increased perceptible FDI as foreigners might be more willing to invest based on the near correct value of our currency that reflects reality.
What to do:
1) Hedge your risk even at the black market rate. Because the trend has not hit its trough yet both at parallel and office windows. Two years ago when Theo talked about it, it was 388.
2) Invest in foreign denomination bonds if any as that will help. preserve the current value of wealth.
3) Invest in IT-related software or business as they are still able to charge their prices in USD.
4) Be determined and deliberate about voting for a candidate that will charge our course of action as a country to help in confidence building.
This is because if no meaningful and deliberate exercise is in place, of course, Trust that the black market will stripe such measures away given our dependency on imports, and the cycle will start again
Selah!. Ikechi
How to Make lots of Dollars as the Naira Falls to N1000 per Dollars in the Coming Months
